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NFL: Can the Jets and Vikings win on the Money Line?
2010-01-21

Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs in the Conference Championships on Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettor. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover often in this round, but they lose outright. The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread, with seven outright losers, six from the AFC. This means bettors at Sportsbook.com could be in for a healthy return on investment in back one or both of the underdogs.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Sportsbook.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but itself for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself. The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to a 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and ‘00 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is a unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, leading to bad throws and possible picks.

The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo, behind a talented offensive line, averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, and he has been making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and aren’t worried about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season, with a .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome, he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, simply testing his arm and coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, the Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, the possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for the NFC title game failure while with Green Bay two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.

NFL: Several Key 1 PM ET Kickoffs in NFL (1:00 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2009-10-16

The NFL’s early betting board on Sunday is loaded with eight games and two of them are absolutely titanic tilts. NFC unbeatens will battle in New Orleans, and that conference’s other remaining perfect team, Minnesota, will host an AFC power. It figures to be a good time to sit down in front of the TV with your favorite beverage. Here’s a quick look at the key games. Be sure to visit the Live Odds, Betting Trends, and Team Statistics pages on Sportsbook.com for the latest information.

(215) BALTIMORE at (216) MINNESOTA
One of the most intriguing contests on the Week 6 slate is an inter-conference battle with Minnesota hosting Baltimore. The Vikings are unbeaten but begin a tough stretch of three games before their bye week. Under Brad Childress, they are just 11-16 ATS as hosts, including 3-3 SU & ATS vs. AFC foes. However, as a franchise, Minnesota is 2-9 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG in his tenure. The Ravens are 3-2 and head into their off week next Sunday. They have won and covered just once in their L4 on the road versus NFC foes. Baltimore is 6-1 UNDER in its L7 pre-bye week games and dogs have covered the L4 in that scenario. This is the first visit ever by the Ravens to the Metrodome, but they have won the L2 H2h meetings, both SU & ATS.

(219) NY GIANTS at (220) NEW ORLEANS
Three NFC teams have set themselves apart in the first five weeks, and two of them match up on Sunday in New Orleans when the Saints host the Giants in a battle of unbeaten teams. It will be a battle of wills, as New York has been the best road team in the league under Tom Coughlin, going 31-13 ATS, including 19-10 ATS as an underdog. New Orleans has developed a strong home field advantage of late though, winning five of its L6 both SU & ATS, outscoring opponents by 14.5 PPG. The Saints have also scored 23 points or more in every home game since 10/21/07, a span of 14 games. They are looking to break a 0-3 SU & ATS record in post-bye week games under Sean Payton though. In this head-to-head series, home teams own a 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS edge in the L9 meetings.

Here is a Best Bet writeup from the StatFox Platinum Sheet:

(211) HOUSTON at (212) CINCINNATI: How does a team go from a 9-point dog one week to a 6-1/2 point opening favorite the next? By guessing, and public perception, that’s how. Bettors now believe that Cincinnati is for real after the upset win at Baltimore. However, according to scoring differentials, the Bengals are just an average team, and as such, a nice system applies to this game: Play On - Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. (82-44 since 1983.) (65.1%, +33.6 units. Rating = 2*). Houston is capable of rallying from any point in a game with its explosive offense. The Bengals offense is not explosive at all, and thus the reason they are 0-2 ATS as a favorite in ’09. That is no mistake. This Cincy team will only be good when disregarded. Here that is not the case, take the dog. Play: Houston plus the points

NFL: Final Preseason Week Top Power Trends
2008-08-28

With the NFL Preseason about to conclude, here is a look at the best angles available for all the games over the next couple of days. These trends often end up having historical significance based on coaching and organizational preferences before the start of the regular season. Check out the latest lines for this week’s games by clicking on the LIVE ODDS link.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis

-The Colts are 11-1 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points.

-The Colts are 12-3 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

-The Colts are 4-12 ATS in last 16 preseason encounters.

-The Bengals are 1-7 as underdogs if opponent is off double digit loss.

St. Louis at Kansas City

-The Rams are 5-18 ATS after playing a game at home.

Jacksonville at Washington

-The Redskins are 1-10 ATS in home games off one or more straight Overs.

Minnesota at Dallas

-The Cowboys are 10-0 Over when playing against a team with a losing record.

Tennessee at Green Bay

-The Titans are 11-0 Over in road games after one or more consecutive straight up losses.

Atlanta at Baltimore

-The Falcons are 9-1 Over after allowing nine points or less in last outing.

-The Ravens are 10-1 Under after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game.

Chicago at Cleveland

-The Browns are 12-3 ATS in home games after playing a non-conference tilt.

-The Bears are 8-21 ATS in the last two weeks of the preseason.

Miami at New Orleans

-The Saints are 8-20 ATS at the Super Dome in the preseason.

-The Dolphins are 2-9 ATS off exactly two SU and ATS wins.

Tampa Bay at Houston

-The Texans are 0-5 ATS in last contest of the preseason.

-The Texans are on 7-0 Over run in August games.

Carolina at Pittsburgh

-The Panthers are 2-7 ATS as underdogs.

-The Steelers are 8-0 Under playing on Thursday’s.

N.Y Jets at Philadelphia

-The Eagles are 1-7 ATS after back-to-back wins and covers.

Denver at Arizona

-The Broncos are 13-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite.

-The Broncos are 8-0 ATS in the final week of the preseason.

Oakland at Seattle

-The Raiders are 14-3 UNDER off two or more consecutive Unders.

-The Raiders are 10-1 Under off an upset loss as a favorite.