NFL - Minnesota at Dallas

After being humbled by Tom Brady & the Patriots on Sunday

2007-10-19

After being humbled by Tom Brady & the Patriots on Sunday, the Cowboys will face another dangerous offensive weapon in Minnesota’s RB Adrian Peterson on Sunday. Oddsmakers don’t give the Vikings much of a chance though, installing them as double-digit underdogs in Big “D”.

Brady gashed the Cowboys for 388 yards and five TD’s in a 48-27 convincing win. Peterson ran wild on Chicago, gaining 224 rushing yards and 3 TD’s in the Vikings’ 34-31 victory. Dallas’ defense is yielding just 3.4 YPR, ironically 2nd in the NFC to Minnesota, and hasn’t allowed more than 81 rushing yards in any game since Week 1. The Cowboys have dropped two straight ATS and will play as just shy of a double-digit favorite here. They are 19-8 ATS at home after losing back-to-back games ATS. Minnesota has been a huge over team against good offenses, going 16-4 OVER vs. teams gaining >350 YPG.

It appears the Vikings are starting to fall in the face of opportunity. The NFC North is becoming one of the more competitive divisions in the game, but Minnesota has fallen off the pace a bit with three losses in four game, going 1-1-2 ATS. Preseason concerns about a passing attack led by QB Tarvaris Jackson are coming to fruition, but the rushing offense has exceed expectation as rookie Adrian Peterson looks every bit the stud college fans felt he could be. The inconsistent trends come to life on defense as well as the Vikes possess one of the league’s best rushing defenses but have stopped no one from passing all over the field.

Ruling the NFC served Dallas well through the first four weeks of the season, but consecutive struggles against AFC East opponents may signify underlying problems that need to be addressed. The offense is as stout as you’ll find and the ability to overcome an atrocious performance by QB Tony Romo against Buffalo shows resolve. The defense has been a bit sporadic but should perform well against a one-trick pony like this Minnesota offense. If the early trends hold true, the Cowboys should dominate their fellow NFC combatant (average point margin versus the NFC = 21 points going 3-0 SU & ATS; versus the AFC = 9, or -1 counting the New England loss, going 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS).

Keys to the Game
The Vikings Brad Childress’ best plan would be an aggressive attack early at Dallas. The Cowboys emptied their emotional bank against New England and will presumably not be ready to start against a significantly weaker foe. Minnesota has the players to stop Dallas running game and should make Romo look for receivers other than TE Jason Witten. When watching Dallas, Romo is left uncomfortable throwing to wide receivers on continual basis. If the Vikes can find success in limiting Witten, Romo might throw a few up for grabs like he did against Buffalo, especially if he has a letdown after a huge Patriots encounter.

Trends
- The Vikings are 1-8 ATS in October as underdogs with a record under .500.
- The Vikings are 6-3-1 ATS on the road after playing NFC North club.
- The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS hosting Minnesota.
- The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS as home favorite when the total is 44 or higher.

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